Storm Warning 260, NWS Anchorage, AK

852 
FZAK52 PAFC 161307
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO THE EASTERN BERING BY
FRIDAY. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING DISSIPATES ON
THURSDAY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN BERING ON FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 15
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-170300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. E OF 161W N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-170300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BERING SIDE...N 35 KT PACIFIC SIDE. GUSTS TO
45 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. GUSTS TO 45 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-170300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 30 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SEAS 5 FT. W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...
14 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-170300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1205 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STABLE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS
IN PLACE WITH BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND DEEP LOW
OVER THE GULF. WINDS PEAKED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING
AND WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE GULF LOW
SINKS SOUTHWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE GRADIENT
IS TIGHTENING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS
RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD A BIT...SO WINDS THERE HAVE INCREASED THIS
MORNING. KODIAK ISLAND IS THE ONLY LAND AREA OBSERVING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE GULF LOW PASS
THROUGH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS GENERALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK
OF LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. SINCE NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST...COLD ADVECTION HAS ENDED AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS GULF
LOW TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH ENOUGH TO TAKE DOWN THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. AFTER INITIALLY SLACKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT AND WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SURFACE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL. MEANWHILE...GAP
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SERIES OF
NORTHERLY JETS MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR OCCASIONALLY STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THESE GAPS.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF STORMS WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE
BERING SEA RIDGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS GRADUALLY SQUASHING THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS THE BERING THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER A BRIEF CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW FROM THE BERING TO MAINLAND ALASKA
MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE BERING SEA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...MAINLAND ALASKA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND AND THEN COLD AND DRY
WILL RETURN. CHANCES ARE THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WINDS EVENT MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN
PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 131 135.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...127 132.
         GALE WARNING...120 121 126 128 129 130 138 140 150 155 160
                        165 170 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 125 126 127 128 129 130
                                        138 140 141 150 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 10