Storm Warning 253, NWS Anchorage, AK

419 
FZAK51 PAFC 030011
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
EAST. A 996 MB LOW FORMS NEAR KODIAK LATE FRI MORNING THEN WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. A STRONG WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
FRI MORNING TO THE EASTERN GULF SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT DURING THE
EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...WIND BECOMING SW 20 KT AND DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 2 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI...WIND BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE FAIRLY REASONABLE.
MODEL SYNOPTIC FORECAST TRENDS IN AND GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM (SAT AFTERNOON). BIGGEST CHANGE IN
IN THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN WITH THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NEAR THE SW COAST OF ALASKA FRI AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KODIAK ISLAND FRI MORNING...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THIS CENTER WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KENAI PEN FRI NIGHT.

.UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES EAST TO OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THEN TO THE WESTERN GULF
THU AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY MOVES EAST
AND WEAKENS AS A DEVELOPING CENTER NEAR ITS BASE DRIVES SOUTH INTO
THE NE PACIFIC THU. SO THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE BY THE TIME IT
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU. A STRONG LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO NEAR THE SW COAST OF ALASKA FRI AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TO NEAR BRISTOL BAY SAT. A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY JET SETS UP OVER THE AK PEN AND SW ALASKA THU EVENING
AND SPREADS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRI MORNING. BY FRI
EVENING...THE MAIN CORE OF THE JET EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN...OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

.SURFACE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST TODAY AS THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS OVER THE PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN...THERMAL GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC/POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND MARITIME AIR
OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG. SO WOULD EXPECT LOCALLY
BRISK GAP WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH GULF THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS MORNING. IT IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS TONIGHT. ON DETRACTOR WILL BE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
COMES IN WITH APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. FRONT APPROACHING SW ALASKA
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU. CURRENT
THOUGHT IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NEAR KODIAK AND
LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING FRI/FRI NIGHT WILL BRING IN THE BEST SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRISK GAP WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN AND ANCHORAGE BOWL.
COULD SEE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI FRI. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL SHOW DETERIORATING TREND IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS

WESTERN ALASKA.
FRONT APPROACHING SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SO SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS AND SNOW SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT AND THU. A LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA LATE
TONIGHT MOVES TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND FRI MORNING THEN WEAKENS OVER
THE SW INTERIOR FRI NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW CENTER THEN MOVES TO OVER
BRISTOL BAY EARLY SAT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE FRI MORNING THEN TO THE SW
MAINLAND THU EVENING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
ON FRI. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
FRONT INTO SW ALASKA THU NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD SUGGEST MIXED RAIN AND IN BRISTOL BAY COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SW ALASKA. STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SO BLOWING
SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER INLAND BRISTOL BAY AND OVER MUCH OF THE
DELTA. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN INTO BRISTOL BAY
THU NIGHT. SINCE MODELS HAVE UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT...WILL
TREND FORECAST CONDITIONS DOWN AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN BEFORE
CONSIDERING WWA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS GULF/N PACIFIC LOW STALLS LATE SAT/SUN
A WAVE MAY MOVE N ALONG FRONT AND DEVELOP A LOW OVER EASTERN GULF
COAST THEN AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN/SNOW TO OUTER COAST
SUN...AND KENAI LATE SUN/MON. WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE TOWARD PADQ...BY
LATE MON. N TO NE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN UP OVER
S-CENTRAL AND COPPER BASIN SUN/MON...RETURNING GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW.
SW AK AND MOST OF ALEUTIANS TO REMAIN UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
THEN...WITH SOME SCATTERED -SHSN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT PADU EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE....STORMS 176 175. GALES 150 155 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 10