Storm Warning 249, NWS Anchorage, AK

780 
FZAK62 PAFC 150015
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THU. A 
WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING ON WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE BERING SEA WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE MAINLAND
AND GULF OF ALASKA. A 110 KT JET DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE STATE...THAT CONTRIBUTED TO WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS IN THE PROCESS
OF BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A SURFACE
LOW IS INTENSIFYING BENEATH THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...AND IS
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BROKEN
OUT THIS MORNING AND HAS PROVIDED A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW TO
MANY AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE BERING SEA HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT THESE WILL HAVE RELATIVELY MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER FOR MAINLAND ALASKA. THE NAM WAS THE PRIMARY MODEL USED IN
THE MORNING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.MAINLAND ALASKA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE
SEASON WORKING ITS WAY INTO MOST LOCATIONS BY TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
THROUGH AREAS OF CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA...WHERE WINDS
WILL APPROACH 90 MPH BY TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL EXCEED 75 MPH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. CURRENTLY..A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WHILE THESE AREAS WILL
SEE WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW MINUS 40...MANY OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW RANGE.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
CONTROL OF THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO DUTCH HARBOR
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG TERM MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS OVERALL PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS STILL PRETTY LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 131 135
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 140 150
         GALE 121 125 129 138 141 155 165 170 171 172 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
845 AM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

AKZ101-151600-

...STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL...

STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ANCHORAGE AND
WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN ANCHORAGE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN WEST ANCHORAGE. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE
WINDS LIFT THE SNOW THAT FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING.

AVIATORS ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR PLANES TO AVOID DAMAGE FROM THESE
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO EASTERN
ANCHORAGE...AFFECTING BOTH THE LAKE HOOD AND MERRILL FIELD AIRPORTS.
DRIVERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHERE BLOWING SNOW HAS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CREATE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE CITY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KS