Storm Warning 241, NWS Anchorage, AK

316 
FZAK51 PAFC 281822 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
920 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

UPDATED 130 132 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO CORDOVA AT 998 MB
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 984 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SUCKLING
AT 976 MB MON AFTERNOON THEN TO 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SUCKLING
EARLY TUE MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
920 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
920 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
920 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR WESTERN BAYS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  
$$

051 
FZAK51 PAFC 290016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT. A
991 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 970 MB MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL
WEAKEN TO 983 MB AND MOVE TO 240 NM SOUTHWEST OF JUNEAU BY TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT EXCEPT NW 35 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
COAST.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

626 
FZAK51 PAFC 291237
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF CAPE SUCKLING THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 973 MB. THIS LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE SPENCER BY LATE TONIGHT AT 979
MB THEN TO 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE DECISION WED MORNING AT 997 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-300300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-300300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-300300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-300300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-300300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-300300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-300300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-300300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-300300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

953 
FZAK51 PAFC 300054
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 978 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO 210 NM SW OF
YAKUTAT MON NIGHT AT 976 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
1002 MB AS IT MOVES 240 NM SOUTH OF SITKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-301500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-301500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-301500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

271 
FZAK51 PAFC 301302
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 978 MB LOW 370 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE TO 270 NM 
SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AT 988 MB TUE EVENING...THEN MOVE TO 
100 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE AT 999 MB WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION THU MORNING. A LOW 
WILL DEVELOP 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WED AFTERNOON AND MOVE 
TO 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 1002 MB EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST WEST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY BARREN ISLANDS WESTWARD. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY BARREN ISLANDS WESTWARD. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKST SAT NOV 27 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COUCHED IN BETWEEN TWO
SHORT-WAVE RIDGES. A MATURE SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING UP THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS JUST OFF THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST AND BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE. WITH ORIGINS IN THE ARCTIC THERE IS A LOT OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TRACKING TOWARD THE GULF. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK DYNAMICS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION IS
MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO SOUTHCENTRAL. OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA WITH JUST FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH. LASTLY...A MODERATE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS TRACKING
UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST. WITH
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALL OF THESE WAVES ARE HEADING EASTWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM QPF OUTPUT FOR SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IS NOTABLY HIGHER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
HANDLING OF MAJOR FEATURES LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. THE 18Z NAM CAME IN
WITH VALUES MUCH CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE
IN THE LOWER AMOUNTS. OTHER THAN THAT...MODELS ARE ALL IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DISPLAY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT TO SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -20 DEGREES FROM 850MB TO
600MB. THESE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT GROWTH OF DENDRITES AND
PLATES...WHICH ARE TYPES OF SNOW CRYSTALS...AND THESE GENERALLY
RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 25:1 OR
HIGHER. THEREFORE...EVEN WITH LOW LIQUID VALUES THIS FAVORS HIGHER
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY USHER IN.
THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE A BRIEF DURATION SNOW EVENT AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN SPITE OF THE HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

A WIND EVENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS:

1) ARCTIC AIR PLUMMETS SOUTHWARD

2) PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND STRENGTHENS DUE
TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM.

3) ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES DROP DOWN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE WHICH ALLOWS HIGHER LEVEL
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.

4) RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN BERING WITH UPPER JET DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL.

AT THIS MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF THE WIND EVENT FROM THE
MAT-SU TO ANCHORAGE TO THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST
AND WHEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AT ITS MAXIMUM. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT TO SEE HOW FAVORABLE STABILITY IS FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE FORMATION. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AREAS TO THE EAST WHICH TYPICALLY GET WINDS
IN THIS SCENARIO...SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS/VALDEZ AND THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH MAXIMUM WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE AREAS WILL NOT SEE THE SAME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS TO THE WEST...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF AND OBSERVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE REACHED. SINCE THIS IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND IT
LOOKS BORDERLINE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH YET...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL.

WIND STORM WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS GULF
LOW WEAKENS AND EXITS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THAT WILL LEAVE US
WITH CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TONIGHT RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK UP IN
SOME PLACES AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN...PRIMARILY OVER THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION AND ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL REALLY ENHANCE WINDS THROUGH GAPS OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SO LATEST FORECAST WILL BUMP UP FORECAST SPEEDS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL THEN HAVE A
CHANCE OF PRECIP AS BERING SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL BE VERY WEAK BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT OVER THE RIDGE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK FROM THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EACH OF THESE WILL HELP MAINTAIN RIDGE DOWNSTREAM SO THAT THEY
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A MEAN RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THEREFORE...COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A CHANGE
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BERING SEA AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE GULF. HOWEVER...THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OF WHETHER THIS COMES CLOSE ENOUGH
TO GREATLY AFFECT THE MAINLAND. PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN BERING
AND ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ALTHOUGH THERE DOESN'T APPEAR
TO BE ANY PARTICULARLY STRONG STORMS ON THE WAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...127 130.
         GALE WARNING...120 121 125 126 128 129 132 138 140 150 155
                        160 165 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 10