Storm Warning 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

495 
FZAK62 PAFC 081218
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 MB LOW NEAR 47N 179W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 967 MB NEAR 54N 161W
LATE TUE NIGHT. A 964 MB LOW NEAR 51N 170W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 957 MB
NEAR 54N 169W MON EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN IN PLACE BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY THE FIRST LOW TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 175W. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 175W. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF
176W. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH
OF 56N.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 57N IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

691 
FZAK62 PAFC 082344
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 54N 174W AND WEAKENS TO 
968 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 968 MB LOW NEAR 55N 158W THIS EVENING
MOVES 60N 167W AND WEAKENS TO 973 MB TUESDAY EVENING. A 959 MB LOW
NEAR 48N 177W MOVES TO 55N 167W AT 967 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 21 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW TO N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW TO N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE TO E WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO NE TO SE 30 TO 
40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...WEST OF 168W...N TO NE 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. EAST OF 168W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N TO E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
7 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 

$$

235 
FZAK62 PAFC 091237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 959 MB LOW NEAR 49N 170W SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 962 MB NEAR DUTCH HARBOR
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS TO 973 MB NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND LATE
WED NIGHT. A 962 MB LOW NEAR 54N 171W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE FIRST LOW THIS EVENING.
$$

PKZ411-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT E OF 174W.
SEAS 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT S WIND 15 KT SOUTH OF 56N. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE. THE COLD CORE LOW
THAT WAS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA YESTERDAY IS DRIFTING NORTH TOWARD
NORTON BAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THIS
FEATURE WITH AXIS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE TROF AXIS...THE MORE
POTENT ONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD YAKUTAT AND WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST. THE SECOND WEAKER ONE HAS A SURFACE
REFLECTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN POINT OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

FURTHER WEST...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT IS BEING FUELED BY A 200
KT JET FLOWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF NEAR 35N. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR ATTENTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODEL DISCUSSION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED
THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BECAUSE THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOW IN
THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON WATCH/WARNING DECISIONS. THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR DOMAIN IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE WITH ALL MAJOR
FEATURES ACCOUNTED FOR AND CONSISTENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OUT WEST...MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE COMPLEX
LOW AND STORM FORCE FRONT THAT IS DEVELOPING TODAY. THE NAM IS BY FAR
THE OUTLIER SO WAS DISCARDED FOR THIS PACKAGE. SYNOPTICALLY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. THE DIFFERENCES SURROUND THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVES AND THEIR SURFACE
REFLECTIONS. A BLEND OF THESE TWO WERE USED AS NO PREFERENCE COULD BE
GIVEN TO EITHER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE FIRST 48
HOURS...BUT DIMINISHES BEYOND THAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN IS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON THE KENAI AND MIDDLETON RADARS...AND ARE
SPREADING NORTH TOWARD THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY.
AS EXPECTED...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MIGHT REACH 3 INCHES...BUT
OTHERWISE ARE EXPECTING ONLY AN INCH OR SO OVER MOST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND THEN
EYES TURN WEST WITH THE ADVANCING STORM FORCE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND
MONDAY EVENING AS WELL AS THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE WESTERN KENAI UP
TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPED FOR THIS EVENT...WITH
MAYBE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FALLING DURING THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE. THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR INLAND. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH THE TROF AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE ALCAN BORDER...RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND PRECIPITATION BEING CONFINED TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH GUSTS TO 65
MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST WARMER AIR MOVES INLAND...WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN
CAPES...AS WELL MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE IN THIS REGION WITH IMPULSES ROTATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AKPEN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE MUCH ADVERTISED FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD WARNINGS
AND WATCHES ARE POSTED ALONG THE CHAIN AND THE PRIBILOFS FOR STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO HOW
FAST THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND USE THAT TO GAGE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR THE PRIBILOFS AS THE ICE EDGE IS
BUTTING UP AGAINST THE ISLANDS...MAKING THEM ESSENTIALLY A
CONTINENTAL LOCATION. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BUT
ONCE IT BEGINS TO FALL...EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED
TIME UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THESE SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
WINDS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY 3RD OR 4TH PERIOD WATCHES BUT SOMETHING
ELSE WE WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187
         BLIZZARD WATCH 185 195.
MARINE...STORM 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 175
         GALE WARNING...120 141 176 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB FEB 10