Storm Warning 227, NWS Anchorage, AK

144 
FZAK51 PAFC 080007
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1008 MB
60 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 12 FT E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 40
KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
18 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 7 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT NOV 6 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA WHILE AN UPPER LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA. A WEAKER UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING IS MOVING EAST.

A SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA, COOK INLET AND THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING ALONG IT. A WEAKER SURFACE LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A NEW WEATHER FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO THE WESTERN BERING OVERNIGHT AND HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF RAIN
TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW IN THE GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NUMEROUS RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN SOUND SUNDAY BUT PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
SOUND THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW WILL
REMAIN OVER INTERIOR REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND PUSH THE OLD UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON DELTA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MORE SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MONDAY AS THE BERING SEA WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

BERING SEA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING MONDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND WILL WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED INTO
CANADA AS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM NOV 10