Storm Warning 214, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
(SHORT TERM). THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE THE BEST CHOICE WITH THE
NEXT STORM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WED EVENING.

.UPPER LEVELS...

.500 MB...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS EVIDENT TODAY WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY SOUTH ALONG 160W TO 30N
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ALONG 170E FROM 30N TO ANOTHER HIGH
CENTER OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER SW ALASKA THU. THIS CENTER THEN ACTS AS
THE PIVOT POINT FOR THE NEXT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THU
NIGHT. BY SAT MORNING...ALEUTIAN WAVE HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE RIDGE HAS BEEN REESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA.

.SURFACE...
THE STORM CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MON MOVED INLAND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF OVERNIGHT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH UNDER A
STRONG JET AND DEEPENS INTO THE 950S IN THE NORTHERN GULF WED
EVENING. THIS CENTER THEN MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS EARLY THU. EXPECT
WE WILL SEE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF WATERS WITH AND
AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS CENTER. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTS LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THEN WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES INLAND WED NIGHT/THU. THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND. SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE GULF COASTS WITH SOME MIXED INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. TEMPS COOL A LITTLE OVER THE COOK INLET TO SUSITNA
VALLEY REGION THU NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTH.

.OUT WEST...
LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH WED AND WEAKEN AS THE
STRONG GULF CENTER PUSHES NORTH. SO EXPECT AREAS OF SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO HOLD IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA UNTIL THEN. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY NEAR SHEMYA. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ADN SHEARS APART. A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONT STEALS ITS ENERGY AND DEEPENS INTO THE
UPPER 970S AS IT MOVES TO NEAR ADAK THU AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER
WEAKENS AS A TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPING ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 125 130 132 176
         GALES 121 127 138 140 141 150 175

RMC NOV 10