Storm Warning 201, NWS Anchorage, AK

735 
FZAK52 PAFC 261528 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
725 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

UPDATED ZONE 170 171 175 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270000-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 MB LOW OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO
300 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU AT 954 MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK TO 290
NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 952 MB WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MOVE TO AROUND 160 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 960 MB ON
THU MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL 
MOVE ASHORE THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST ON WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-270000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-270000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE EVENING AND
INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-270000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
725 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 29 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-270000-
UNALASKA BAY
725 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO S 15 KT OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 30 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-270000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 
12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 9 FT. PACIFIC SIDE..SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. AREAS OF 
FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
725 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT EXCEPT 27 FT FROM SHEMYA W.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO
50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SEAS 17 FT. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SEAS 26 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-270000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
725 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT MON OCT 25 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
THE ALASKA REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN TODAY IS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ROTATING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHORT-WAVE FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO
NORTHERN COOK INLET AND THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
STEADY PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING THROUGH KENAI AND SEWARD. THE BACK
EDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORT-WAVE BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWESTWARD. PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...WEAK COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE UP COOK INLET. THE 12Z
ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER WITH FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 4500 FEET AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 6 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SURPRISINGLY...SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN
ANCHORAGE. THIS HAS LED TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR ANCHORAGE AND PARTS OF THE
MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS LATER TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS ALSO PRODUCING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING INTO BRISTOL BAY BRINGING IN SOME SHOWERS
BEHIND THE STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE.

CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH
JUST SOME SHOWERS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...A MAJOR STORM
SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS HEADED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES COMPARED TO CURRENT FORECASTS...SO THE NEW FORECASTS WILL
BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. THE PRIMARY CHANGE IS FOR STRONGER WINDS
OUT WEST WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR MOVING UP THE
INLET AND COOLING OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN OF AIR DUE TO MELTING WILL
CHANGE PRECIPITATION FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD TO ALL SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE TIMING OF THE SNOW DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL AFFECT RUSH HOUR
TRAFFIC IN ANCHORAGE WITH THE PRIME PERIOD OF SNOWFALL IN THE 3 PM
TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. THE TEMPERATURES OF PAVED SURFACES ARE STILL
QUITE WARM (AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 30S) SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
BEFORE SNOW STICKS ON THE ROADS.  WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND EXPECT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS AT SEA LEVEL WITH 2 INCHES
OR MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS IN
ANCHORAGE BY MID EVENING WHILE THE STEADY PRECIP HEADS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS AS WELL AS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO KODIAK
ISLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING...SO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF AFFECTING MAINLY THE GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA.
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN
INTO A TROUGH MID WEEK AND EXIT TO THE EAST. FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL
BE THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INITIALLY PRODUCING
STRONG CHINOOK WINDS AND MAINLY RAIN. THERE WILL AGAIN BE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ROTATES
NORTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SNOW WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. MEANWHILE...THE STEADY SNOW FURTHER
EAST OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN. COLDER ADVECTION WILL ENSURE THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A MAJOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH USUALLY
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES.
IN THIS CASE...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THIS EFFECT AND PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE. WARM AIR WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER NORTH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A STRONG UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID
STRENGTHENING OF LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN BERING TUESDAY. EXPECT GALE TO STORM FORCE WITH THIS
LOW AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINANT BEHIND THE FRONTAL AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST BEGINNING MID WEEK. AT THIS POINT COASTAL FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAJOR LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING MID WEEK
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODELS ALL INDICATE FORMATION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR
THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND PRECIP IN
ITS VICINITY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS LOW AND FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN WITH THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SO THERE A VERY GOOD
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
ANOTHER LOW WILL ENTER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS IN THE BROAD WESTERLIES
LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR LOW IN THE
GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...185.
         GALE WARNING...172 175 176 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 10