Storm Warning 187, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 4, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 5, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

382 
FZAK51 PAFC 042320
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051200-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW 465 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 200 NM EAST OF KODIAK TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA TUE NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW
FORMS 50 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD AT 990 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-051200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S 
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL
ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN 
ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 4, 12:30 PM AKDT, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKDT MON OCT 4 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. AT THE HEART OF
THE TROUGH IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA. SAINT GEORGE ISLAND OBSERVED SOME ENHANCED WINDS AS THIS
LOW PASSED JUST TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM
SAINT PAUL ALSO INDICATES AN UNSTABLE WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT THESE LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS TO CONTINUE
BOTH IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER CENTER AS WELL AS NEAR NEAR
SHOWERS. ON THESE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES ARE
TRACKING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THESE SHORT-WAVES ARE HANGING UP ALONG THE
COAST. ANY SHOWERS WHICH DO SURVIVE THE JOURNEY INLAND ARE CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT MAJOR STORM (CURRENTLY
NEAR 48N 158W) IS RAPIDLY TRACKING TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA THANKS
TO A 150+ KT JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF SYSTEM HEADED TO THE GULF...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GROUPED
IN THE SAME VICINITY AND THERE IS GOOD RUN-TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A 970S LOW MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE STORMS THIS ONE WILL
STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
ALSO...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY LOW LEVELS AND LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.  EXPECT NEARLY ALL THE
PRECIP TO FALL IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. EVEN THERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE WILL BE BRIEF
AND VERY LIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN
FORMATION OF A SECODNARY LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING DROPS
SOUTHWARD AND MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT
FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT. MARGINALLY COOLER AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BENIGN
WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE BERING SEA WILL ALSO AID
IN FORMATION OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. THEREFORE...TRACK OF NEXT MAJOR STORM
WILL BE TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A LARGE UPPER LOW OUT OF RUSSIA AND INTO
THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH WON'T BE MUCH OF A STORM BY
BERING SEA STANDARDS...BUT AS THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RECENTERING
THE TROUGH BACK WESTWARD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MAJOR GULF
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130.
         GALE WARNING...132 138 140 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.