Storm Warning 185, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 3, 2010, 8:15 AM AKDT (16:15 UTC)

Expired

Oct 3, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

8 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

121 
FZAK51 PAFC 031615 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
815 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

UPDATED ZONES 121 125 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040000-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA BY MIDDAY AND DISSIPATES. A 999 MB LOW FORMS SUN EVENING
200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY MON AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 971 MB MON NIGHT 150 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-040000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040000-
RESURRECTION BAY
815 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
815 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040000-
PASSAGE CANAL
815 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-040000-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040000-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-040000-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 3, 5:09 AM AKDT, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT OCT 2 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WITH A LOBE EXTENDING
ACROSS KODIAK AND ANOTHER LOBE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A
BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO WEST OF
BARROW...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE OVER KAMCHATKA AND EASTERN RUSSIA. AT
THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED DOUBLE LOW IS APPROACHING THE KENAI
PENINSULA EAST OF HOMER WHERE IT WILL RAPIDLY RECONSOLIDATE UPON
LANDFALL...WHILE A SECOND LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN BERING. A THIRD
MUCH MORE AMORPHOUS LOW IS SOUTH OF ATTU...BUT WILL BECOME A MAJOR
PLAYER IN THE GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON A FEW CRITICAL DETAILS...SO THE
FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST RESEMBLE THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GULF
LOW...HAVING SPLIT INTO A DOUBLE LOW FEATURE...WILL MERGE AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL EAST OF HOMER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS THEN RAPIDLY ABSORBED
INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AK. SUN AFTERNOON A
SMALL LOW ROTATES INTO THE GULF AND MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
MON AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. BY THIS TIME THE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING MERGES WITH THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WELL SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN. THIS THIRD PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AND REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...WEAK TO SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND THE
ALEUTIANS.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TUE AFTER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AKPEN AND MERGES WITH THE THIRD
PACIFIC LOW.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...PERIODS OF RAIN AND STRONG CHANNELED
WIND WILL OCCUR WITH EACH LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SOME
DRYING CAN FINALLY BE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST ON TUE AS THE THIRD LOW
MOVES TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TO DECAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH SHOWERS UNTIL A
WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE BERING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST AK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND STORM SYSTEMS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER
THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DECAYS WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST OF THE
AK RANGE WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 125
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 125 129 130 165 170 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.