Storm Warning 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

682 
FZAK52 PAFC 211254
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL STALL AS IT WEAKENS
TO GALE FORCE LATE FRI. STRONG NORTHERLIES OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

$$

PKZ150-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-220300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 
FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 27 FT FROM
SHEMYA W. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT...BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM SHEMYA
W. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 45 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT BUILDING TO
19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-220300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
105 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...TODAY IS THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION
IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN. A RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING AHEAD OF A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH SWINGING
OUT OF ASIA. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING AN END TO COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING...AND THIS IS BEING REFLECTED IN THE
OBSERVED TREND OF DIMINISHING NORTHERLIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE
LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND IS
BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ONE LAST SHORT-WAVE IS ROTATING
WESTWARD ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HEAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
MOVES EASTWARD. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL PLAY
A MAJOR PART IN THE GULF FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LASTLY...A
RIDGE OVER CANADA IS BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
MAINLAND...WHICH HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW
MOVING INTO THE GULF NOW MATCHES WHAT THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING AND IS CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST. THUS WILL GO
HEAVILY WITH WHAT IS NOW A MODEL CONSENSUS. OUT WEST DIFFERENCES
HAVE POPPED UP IN THE MODELS REGARDING SURFACE WAVES MOVING UP
THE MAJOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. TOO EARLY
TO PICK OUT A PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT AND WILL GO WITH A
WASHED OUT REPRESENTATION OF THESE WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOISTURE EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...SO EXPECT THIS TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN COPPER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ON THURSDAY THE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS MOISTURE WILL COME TO A HALT. ALSO...THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INTERIOR ALASKA AND THE
GULF WILL TIGHTEN AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO THAT PRECIP ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE LIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
THEN STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO ENERGY MOVING FROM THE EAST.
ARCTIC AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND PRODUCE THE USUAL STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE KODIAK
ISLAND WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...PRODUCING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE EASTERN BERING TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL CATCH UP TO THE FIRST AND ADVECT ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHERLIES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
STORM FORCE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT-TERM
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AT
A VERY SLOW PACE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEFINITELY MODEL
INCONSISTENCY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE GULF AND ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...176.
         GALE WARNING...127 130 132 150 155 160 170 175 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...150 155 160 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 10