Storm Warning 178, NWS Anchorage, AK

459 
FZAK51 PAFC 010011 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

CORRECTED 132 FOR FRIDAY

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011200-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO 959
MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON 50 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY...THEN WEAKENS TO
975 MB AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR KACHEMAK BAY SATURDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-011200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 50 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND...NE WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO E 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WIND AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS 70 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT EXCEPT 13 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SAT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. SW WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
412 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 23 FT N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT S OF KALGIN ISLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

409 
FZAK51 PAFC 010023 CCB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
424 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

CORRECTED MARINE ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011200-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO 959
MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON 50 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY...THEN WEAKENS TO
975 MB AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR KACHEMAK BAY SATURDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-011200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 50 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND...NE WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO E 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WIND AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS 70 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT EXCEPT 13 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SAT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
412 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 23 FT N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT S OF KALGIN ISLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF IS NEUTRALLY TILTED WITH AXIS
ABOUT 150W. THE DEEP TROF IS TAPPING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A 1800 MILE FETCH OF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS WEAKENING OVER BRISTOL
BAY WHILE ALL THE ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE WEAKENING LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WHERE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASED ABOVE 4000 FT THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS IS ON THE SHORT TERM AS WE DETERMINE THE CORRECT TRACK OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF. THE 12Z NAM CAME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH TAKES THE LOW ON A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARD KACHEMAK BAY. THIS MORNINGS GFS TOOK THE
TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST TOWARD KODIAK CITY BEFORE WEAKENING IT OVER
THE SOUTHERN INLET. THE EC WAS TO THE EAST...SO THE NAM WAS A NICE
COMPROMISE. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND DETAIL
AND FOCUS WAS GENERALLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE MEDIUM AND LONG
RANGE FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH MANY LOCAL
EFFECTS NEEDING TO BE FINE TUNED. FIRST CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND A BARRIER JET FORMS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE GULF AS WELL. THE TRACK OF THE LOW STILL A
BIT OF A CONCERN SINCE THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TRACK WOULD KEEP
WINDS BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SEVERAL ZONES THROUGH THE NORMAL
CHANNELED TERRAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE
THESE AS THE 0Z RUNS COME IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED FROM CORDOVA TO THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA SO WE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY AS MORE HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW THE RIVERS RESPOND...THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMS OUT AT APPROX 958 MB JUST EAST OF
KODIAK CITY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN INLET. THE TROF AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS CAUSING THE
SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
BLOWING THE SNOW AROUND REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING 2 INCHES OR LESS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AGAIN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG GULF LOW. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS ALL THE COLD AIR IS
PUSHED NORTHWARD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WHERE NORTHEASTERN WINDS WILL HOLD THE LONGEST...ALLOWING THE COLD
AIR TO STICK AROUND THROUGH POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SHOWERY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

OUT WEST...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AS THE GULF LOW DEEPENS. WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECTING STRONG WIND TO AFFECT CHANNELED TERRAIN AND
POSSIBLY REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN PLACES LIKE KING COVE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181
         HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125 135
         FLOOD ADVISORY 125 131 135
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE...120 351
         STORM 125 129 130 140 352
         GALE 121 132 138 141 150 155 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB SEP 10