Storm Warning 161, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 15, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 15, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

393 
FZAK62 PAFC 151200
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160000-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 MB LOW AT 53N 176W MOVES TO 55N 167W THIS EVENING AS IT
STRENGTHENS TO 975 MB. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO 57N 165W AT 965 MB SAT
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-160000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-160000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-160000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-160000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 14, 4:00 PM AKDT, 12 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 14 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL RUNS FROM 12Z ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND WITH PREVIOUS RECENT RUNS. THE 18Z NAM IS GOING OFF WITH A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE BERING SEA LOW THIS WEEKEND BUT THERE IS
NO SUPPORT FOR THIS TRACK AND IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RETURN BACK
TO THE NORTHERN TRACK ON THE 00Z RUN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER AND THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA HAS FLATTENED
CAUSING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG INTO THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA
FRI NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF A SURFACE
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KISKA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE TO MOVE NEAR BRISTOL BAY AND THEN
ALMOST STOP AND REMAIN STATIONARY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME LIGHT BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DIMINISHES. FOG IS UNLIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AS THE
WINDS HAVE DRIED THE AIRMASS SINCE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ON TUESDAY.
SOME AREAS OF SNOW MAY PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THIS
WEEKENDS BIG WEATHER MAKER CAN BE SEEN BEST ON THE IR SATELLITE SOUTH
OF KISKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY SEE UN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AGAIN. THIS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREA TO THE
WEST OF IT AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR AREA TO THE EAST. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SNOW MIXED INTO EASTERN AREA THAT WILL LIKELY BE JUST AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 170 171 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.