Storm Warning 140, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Sep 18, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 18, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

844 
FZAK52 PAFC 181120
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190000-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL DISSIPATE 60 NM SOUTH OF
NIKOLSKI SAT NIGHT. A 985 MB LOW 390 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 971 MB 90 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA SAT NIGHT THEN MOVE 
TO 120 NM NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MON NIGHT AT 977 MB.

$$

PKZ150-190000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-190000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-190000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-190000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-190000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT S AND W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-190000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES FROM
UNALASKA E IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-190000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-190000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN DEVELOPING.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-190000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-190000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT PACIFIC SIDE. BERING 
SIDE...SEAS 21 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-190000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-190000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Sep 17, 5:00 PM AKDT, 11 hours earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT FRI SEP 17 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM
FOR ITS HIGHER DETAIL. IN THE LONGER RUN...TRENDED INHERITED FORECAST
TOWARDS THE GFS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN
EDGES GRADUALLY EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE BEING FORCED
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. LONG WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT ACROSS BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY MIDWEEK.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WAS
OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COOK INLET...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...AND MUCH OF THE GULF. SOME WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE GULF
COAST TODAY SHOULD ENCOURAGE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HELP ANCHORAGE AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA CLEAR OUT TEMPORARILY TODAY. HOWEVER NO RELIEF
EXPECTED FOR KODIAK OR SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
OUT WEST...A WELL STACKED 989 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADAK SWINGS
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE SAT
NIGHT. NEW LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING AND MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF
BOTH RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH WESTERN LOWS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...BUT WILL BE
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BERING WITH THE SECOND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT GRIPPING MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
GULF LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY. BUT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY SHOULD TRIGGER SUFFICIENT MIXING TO FINALLY BREAK THE
INVERSION.
FIRST BERING LOW LACKS THE STRENGTH TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKING HIGH
BUT SECOND LOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEGINNING MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ONCE BLOCKING RIDGE BREAKS DOWN PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
ACTIVE...WITH JET STREAM STEERING LOWS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
TOWARDS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB SEP 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.