Storm Warning 138, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Sep 14, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 14, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

261 
FZAK52 PAFC 141143
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150000-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING DISSIPATES LATER TODAY. A 999 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 190 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA ISLAND BY WED
MORNING AND DEEPENS TO 975 MB. THE LOW THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-150000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-150000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-150000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-150000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-150000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-150000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-150000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-150000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-150000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-150000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM SHEMYA
W...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-150000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-150000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 14 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Sep 13, 2:00 PM AKDT, 14 hours earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT MON SEP 13 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MORNING MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAYS 5-7...AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY DEPICTING 500 MB
RIDGE/OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
MAINLAND AK AND SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH DAY 7. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW WEAK SHORT-WAVES TEMPORARILY FLATTENING THE TOP OF
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF AK THIS THU/FRI...WITH RIDGE
REBOUNDING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH STRONG UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...AND VERY LIGHT GENERAL WIND FLOW
OVER ALL MAINLAND COASTAL AREAS...FOG WAS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
BUT SHALLOW. ALL AREAS WERE ABLE TO BURN OFF TODAY BY 1PM WITH THE
STILL EFFECTIVE MID-SEPT. SUN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BETHEL AND
KODIAK. AREAS AROUND THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA ARE SLOWER TO BURN
OFF TODAY AS SOME STRATUS IS ADVECTING N FROM BRISTOL BAY AND ERN
BERING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAKENING N-S ORIENTED FRONT THAT
STRETCHES S FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO COLD BAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT AGAIN ALL INLAND AREAS
UNDER VERY DRY...STILL AIRMASS WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED
USUAL LOW-LYING MOIST POCKETS. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS TONIGHT...EXPECT FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN ALL COASTAL
AREAS TO RE-FORM BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4AM...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER SUMMER-LIKE
DAY TOMORROW AND WED. WITH TEMPS. REACHING INTO THE 60SF. FREE-AIR
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12 THOUSAND FEET BY WED...BUT WEAKER
SUN AND SHORTER DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPS. FROM EXCEEDING 70F MOST AREAS.
WEAKENING ERN BERING FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUE FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND S TO COLD BAY...AND WILL DISSIPATE...AS IT
MOVES INTO BLOCKING RIDGE. SO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN COLD BAY
AND SAND POINT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE MINIMUM
GALE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK OVER THE MAINLAND...DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE
DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOWS
IN THE GULF OF AK...LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS ALSO TO CONTINUE. AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL ON BERING AND GULF COASTS. WITH SUCH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A 1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 160E/40N WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 977 MB 18Z THU NEAR
48N/178E...THEN FILL RAPIDLY FRI AS IT WOBBLES JUST A LITTLE FURTHER E
TO NEAR 48N/177W. FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AND
RAIN...LATE TOMORROW THROUGH THU...DISSIPATING FRI OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 180 TONIGHT
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MAR SEP 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.