Storm Warning 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

467 
FZAK52 PAFC 060406 AAB
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

UPDATED ZONES 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 185

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061200-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 180 NM WEST OF ADAK STRENGTHENS TO 978 MB 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS
TO 991 MB 140 NM NORTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON TUE. 

$$

PKZ150-061200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS  9 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-061200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-061200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-061200-
UNALASKA BAY
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-061200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
700 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-061200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-061200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
800 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT SUN SEP 5 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS SLOWLY
FILLING AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND DEVELOPED STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH RESULTING BARRIER JET SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. OUT WEST...THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF A WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON ARE HELPING A LOW NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS DEVELOP INTO A POTENT EARLY FALL STORM. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BETWEEN THE
BERING AND GULF LOWS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO
BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY
A FEW SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FIRST...TIMING REMAINS A CONCERN WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL TIMING SPREAD REMAINS ABOUT 6 HOURS...AND FOR
THIS PACKAGE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE
USED. THE SECOND MODEL DISCREPANCY IS THE POSITION OF THE BERING LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT.
FORTUNATELY...ALL SOLUTIONS RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTH WEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH FOG AND
RAIN. OVERALL MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE
GULF IS DELAYING THE DEMISE OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND KENAI PENINSULA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY
IMPROVING AND THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION...MAKING MONDAY AN
OASIS OF PLEASANT WEATHER BEFORE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE SHOULD OCCUR AS PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SPREAD INTO COOK INLET...CREATING GUSTY
WINDS AT SEWARD...WHITTER...AND POSSIBLY EVEN VALDEZ LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UP FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE AS SOUTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP ABUNDANT MOISTURE WELL INLAND. BREAKS IN THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVE BY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL AS THE BERING FRONT
FALLS APART JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...A SECOND FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINS TO ALL AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE AREA
CURRENTLY IS AND WILL REMAIN THE LOW CROSSING INTO THE BERING SEA
JUST WEST OF ADAK. WINDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY STRONG...UPWARDS OF
50 KNOTS...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA LOOKS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...EXPECT GENERALLY ALTERNATING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE BENIGN WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 170 172 175 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD SEP 10