Storm Warning 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 8, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Jul 9, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

119 
FZAK52 PAFC 082324
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091200-
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 MB LOW 185 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN TO 978 MB AS IT 
MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW 
WILL THEN TRACK TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK SAT AFTERNOON 
AT 996 MB.
$$

PKZ150-091200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-091200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER EAST...E WIND 20
KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-091200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...BERING SIDE...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-091200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 30 KT
BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-091200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jul 8, 12:45 PM AKDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1245 PM AKDT THU JUL 8 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL LAST NIGHT IS WEAKENING AS IT ROTATES
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT CAUSING WINDS TO KICK UP IN ALL THE USUAL SPOTS. THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR TODAY AND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS A DEEP
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF ADAK. WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL
SURFACE PRESSURE OF AROUND 970 MB AND STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...THIS IS A POWERFUL STORM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE LOW HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER JET
SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND EXPECT THE LOW IS NEAR ITS
LOWEST PRESSURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND LOW FORMED
LAST NIGHT DOWNSTREAM IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON THE SECONDARY
DOWNSTREAM LOW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z RUNS NOW SHOW
SOME INDICATION OF A LOW...BUT IT APPEARS UNDERDONE BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEEPENING AND THE TRACK
WILL TAKE IT AWAY FROM THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA..SO IT IS NOT
OF MUCH CONCERN. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HANDLING OF THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE
OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN FACT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE GULF FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE ACTUAL LOW WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO THE
GULF LATE SATURDAY AND INLAND TO THE YUKON SUNDAY WHICH MEANS
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DO LOOK LIKELY HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF LOW WILL TRACK WESTWARD
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT. A LOT OF THE MOISTURE
WILL GET HUNG UP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF THE REMNANT UPPER SHORT-WAVE AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY
WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER
FEATURE EXITS FRIDAY THE ALEUTIAN FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND WET SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. DRYING
AND WARMING WILL THEN BEGIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD FURTHER OUT FROM
THE LOW CENTER TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE BENIGN
WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW THE PATTERN
EVOLVES AFTER THIS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IS NOT GOOD. THEREFORE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADS DOWNHILL QUICKLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...
         GALE WARNING...
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.