Storm Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

760 
FZAK51 PAFC 141223 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

CORRECTED 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150200-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WEAKENS TO 1001 MB 100
NM SOUTH OF SEWARD LATE FRI NIGHT AND MOVES INLAND NEAR SEWARD AT
1005 MB SAT MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-150200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-150200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

543 
FZAK51 PAFC 142355
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO 45 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SEWARD AND WEAKENS TO 1004 MB SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW THEN
MOVES INLAND OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
987 MB LOW MOVES TO 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...5 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 15 KT
BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N
OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10
KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
215 PM AKDT THU MAY 13 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH THREE
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. THE FIRST IS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING THE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. A SECOND IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH IS HELPING TO INITIATE A
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT.
THE THIRD IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

THE SURFACE FEATURES MIRROR THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH ONLY WEAK SURFACE
LOWS VERTICALLY STACKED UNDERNEATH THEIR COUNTERPARTS ALOFT. A RIDGE
HAS BUILT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BETWEEN THE TWO WEAK SURFACE
LOWS. THIS COMMON SUMMER FEATURE IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
TYPICAL AREAS INCLUDING TURNAGAIN ARM...SOUTH AND WEST
ANCHORAGE...KNIK VALLEY...AND THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE COAST WITH MOSTLY VIRGA
PREVAILING INLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS...IN
PARTICULAR THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
LOW WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STACKED UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THEREFOR
WOBBLING A BIT AS IT DEEPENS AND ROTATES NORTH INTO THE GULF. THE
DIFFERENT LOCATIONS OF THE LOW CAN BE TRACED TO THE DISPARITIES IN
THE STRENGTH AND RATE AT WHICH THE MODELS DEVELOP THE LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SOLUTION IS THE NAM...WHICH TAKES THE LOW FURTHEST
NORTHWEST NEAR KODIAK CITY WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS THE WEAKEST AND KEEPS
THE LOW MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AND THEREFOR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. BASED ON SATELLITE AND A FEW OBS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...WE
ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THE ECMWF WEAK SOLUTION AND MORE TOWARD A
COMPROMISE WHICH IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS IS THE GFS. THE LOCAL WRF
MODEL DEPICTS THE LOW SIMILARLY TO THE GFS AS WELL AS PICKING UP ON
MANY OF THE LOCAL WIND EFFECTS...SO UTILIZED THE LOCAL WRF IN THE
FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH 60 HOURS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE PAST 60 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DETERMINING
THE COVERAGE OF THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WHETHER THE VIRGA
WILL TURN INTO SHOWERS THAT REACH THE GROUND. THE 12Z SOUNDING
PROBABLY IS NOT A GOOD INDICATION OF THE CURRENT MOISTURE PROFILE
SINCE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
BET IS LIKELY PERSISTENCE...WHICH MEANS SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE
GROUND BUT MOST WILL NOT...AND THE ONES THAT DO WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT
LAST VERY LONG.

GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS
DOWN AND THE LOW MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE GRADIENT BECOMES
ORIENTED MORE NORTH SOUTH WHICH WILL FAVOR DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
AND WEAKER WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COAST AS
THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY.
STILL...ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH NO REAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY SUNDAY. COUPLED WITH A
DRYING TREND...THE RETURN OF SOME WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND OVERALL PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...
SIMILAR FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES INLAND...SPREADING AN AREA
OF STRATIFORM RAIN FROM BRISTOL BAY UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
CONVECTIVE INDEXES LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME AS THE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE REACHES A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER YUKON WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BECOMES A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEVERAL WEAK LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL
ONLY BRING MINIMUM SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND THEN EVENTUALLY
MOVES TO SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY EVENING. SOME GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DISPLAYS MUCH MORE
BAROCLINICITY THAN ITS PREDECESSORS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAY 10