Storm Warning 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

201 
FZAK61 PAFC 101138
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110200-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 991 MB LOW AT 51N 162W
WILL MOVE TO 54N 159W BY LATE TONIGHT AND DEEPEN TO 979 MB. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE TO 58N 162W AT 988 MB BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

016 
FZAK61 PAFC 102307
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-111400-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY. A 995 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 54N 148W TUE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE IN COOK INLET WED
MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-111400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-111400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

870 
FZAK61 PAFC 111148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-120200-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY AND STALL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 56N 150W TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN DISSIPATE IN COOK INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-120200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-120200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

524 
FZAK61 PAFC 112316
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121400-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
EARLY WED. A 993 MB LOW NEAR 55N 149W WILL DISSIPATE IN COOK INLET
WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 11 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SUN MAY 9 2010

.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS...
A LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE BEFORE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA...BRISTOL BAY...AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
SINGULAR WAVE IS THE RESULT OF A MERGER EARLIER TODAY BETWEEN A
TROUGH ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND A STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. IN ADDITION TO THIS LOW...ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW IS DIVING
SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA REGION. WEAK RIDGING PROTRUDES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE STATE AS A RESULT OF BOTH
THERMAL TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES RESIDE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE BERING SEA. A COMPLEX GALE FORCE LOW IS QUICKLY TRANSLATING
EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE FAST MOVING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS THROWING A
WRENCH INTO AN OTHERWISE DECENT FORECAST. MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS
RELATIVELY GOOD THIS MORNING WITH THIS LOW...BUT SOLUTIONS QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON THE STRUCTURE AND TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM BY AS EARLY AS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS TAKING THE LOW ON A FASTER AND
MORE WESTERLY COURSE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH OVER THE PAST DAY HAS
GRADUALLY NUDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...STILL TAKES THE LOW
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND. THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES THAT ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
ARE ALSO POORLY HANDLED. THE FACT THAT THIS LOW REPRESENTS AN ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...COMBINED
WITH ITS COMPLEX NATURE AND FAST FORWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...ARE LIKELY FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE MODELS' INABILITY TO
RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE
THESE DISCREPANCIES WILL IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...DIURNAL CONVECTION ENSUED SHORTLY BEFORE THE
LUNCH HOUR OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...WHERE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. CUMULUS FIELDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MAT-SU VALLEY...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND KENAI
PENINSULA...THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONFINE MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS RANGES. CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE. TOMORROW'S WEATHER
PATTERN WILL SHARPLY CONTRAST WHAT RESIDENTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
HAVE BEEN ENJOYING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND WIDESPREAD RAIN FIRST IMPACTING KODIAK
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AKPEN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK DUE TO THE LOW STALLING OUT BRISTOL BAY...THUS EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG UPSLOPE RANGES AND THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A
SHALLOW SURFACE LOW NORTH OF ANIAK...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
REGION EVEN AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES TONIGHT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH NORTH AND EVENTUALLY FILL THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AKPEN AND
EVENTUALLY STALLS NEAR BRISTOL BAY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WARM
WET WEATHER TO BE THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW PUMPS
A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...SHOWERS LINGER IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FILL IN ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS LATER TODAY AND MONDAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SINKING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE AKPEN STARTING ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CURVES NORTHWARD AND MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN AKPEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...FORCING THE STACKED LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY TO REMAIN STALLED
AND FEED A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF MOISTURE-LADEN SHORTWAVES AND STORMS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL DUE TO
THE INFLUX OF THE COLDER MARITIME AIR MASS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...132 138 140 141 150 155.
         STORM WARNING...120 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS MAY 10