Storm Warning 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

304 
FZAK52 PAFC 181129
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190200-
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL WEAKEN TO 1001 MB SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT. A 994 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR CAPE
NEWENHAM SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND MON NIGHT. A
987 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BECOME A 977 MB LOW NEAR
NIKOLSKI MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-190200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-190200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES W OF
SAND POINT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-190200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-190200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT N 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-190200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W OF CAPE MENDENHALL...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. FROM CAPE
MENDENHALL E...SE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-190200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT W OF UNALASKA ISLAND. SEAS 13
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-190200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-190200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-190200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-190200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-190200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-190200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 18 2010

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
332 PM AKDT SAT APR 17 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN BERING AND
DIGS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD WEAK RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE RIDGE OVER THE
MAINLAND IS BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE IS MOVING
EAST. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING DISCONNECTED FROM
ITS NORTH POLE POTENTIAL VORTICITY SUPPORT AND WEAKENING.

.AT THE SURFACE...A 976 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED 200 MILES SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN
AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH STRETCHES INTO THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY REGION AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS EAST MAINLAND ALASKA HOWEVER CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. NO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXISTS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH
MORE DISAGREEMENT IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH
OF KODIAK. THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELONGATED
LOWS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE RESOLVED AS ONE LOW OR AS COUPLED
BARBELL LOWS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE
NAM IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT ROTATES INTO THE GULF OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HPC GUIDANCE WAS RELIED UPON FOR THE LONG TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE CHANCE FOR STEADY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

.SOUTHWEST... THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND DELTA REGIONS. SNOW AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE REGIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SUNDAY AND
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THIS
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES OVERNIGHT. THE REGION WILL THEN DRY OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKENS.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING A 984
MB LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION AND GALE FORCE
WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE MAINLAND WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...132
            GALE WARNING...120 129 130 136 137 138 150 155 165 170
                           171.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN APR 10