Small Craft Advisory 710, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 31, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Aug 1, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312309
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011200-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1009 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE TO OVER THE
PRIBILOFS BY LATE SUN THEN DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. A 1012 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP SUN MORNING 100 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AND MOVE TO 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF UNALASKA BY MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-011200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 31, 2:00 PM AKDT, 2 hours earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IS IN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW IN
BRISTOL BAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE MAJOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES. YESTERDAY/S 12Z ECMWF AND TODAY/S 12Z GFS RUNS
MOVE THE LOW NORTH ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z
GFS SOLUTIONS CONVERGED FORECASTING MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MOVING
THE RIDGE EAST AND BRINGING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL. THE
12Z SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN WITH THE GFS MOVING THE LOW NORTH ALONG
THE BERING COAST AND THE ECMWF MOVING THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA.  THERE IS A HING OF CONVERGENCE AS THE 12Z GFS FLATTENS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGE AND BRINGS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT IS STILL LOW BEYOND
MIDWEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED
NORTH AND EAST OF COOK INLET THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND OVER THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A
WEAKER BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING OVER THE KENAI LATE THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
CENTERS. THE ANCHOR UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF UNALASKA WITH
A STRONG TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS LOW
CENTER IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TODAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING UNDERNEATH AND EAST OF
THIS RIDGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH CENTRAL...STEADY RAIN IS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE WAKE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
WHICH MEANS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AS WITH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

.ALEUTIANS...THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MEANING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WHICH WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA CLOUDY AND MOIST. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO PUSH TO NEAR 80 ON
TUESDAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE UPPER LOW - OR AT LEAST A
PIECE OF IT - WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL BY MIDWEEK BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN. THIS LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT OF THE BERING BY A
LARGER LOW THAT SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE A WET PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND MUCH
OF THE BERING. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FAR NORTH THE STORM TRACK IS
OVER THE BERING WHICH MEANS CONTINUED ACTIVE AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER
TUESDAY IS LOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH JUL 10

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2010Every small craft advisory in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.