Small Craft Advisory 463, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT THU JUN 24 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEY ALSO DO FAIRLY WELL IN THE MID TERM SYNOPTICALLY WITH A LOW OVER
THE BERING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS MONDAY. A SECOND UPPER
LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
BY TUESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKENING AND STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITION WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

WITH THE THERMAL LOW IN PLACE AND OVER THE MAINLAND EXPECT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSTABLE AIR IN INLAND AREAS. THE CENTRAL BERING RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE
AS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY THIS LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
ALEUTIANS...BERING SEA...AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT WILL HALT ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO STOP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 10