Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING ADEQUATE FOR THE MOST PART. THEY
HAVE SETTLED DOWN A LITTLE WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BUT
ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THAT LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE COLD
OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IT IS JUST GIVING THE
MODELS FITS AS TO PRECISELY WHERE THAT WILL BE. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
BREAK APART BY MONDAY OR SO...BUT ALL INDICATE A CHANGE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO EDGE WESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA WHILE A LOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN
TRIES DO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE YUKON AREA. THE LOW WILL MAKE SOME
HEADWAY AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING FORM
THE SOUTH BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE EAST WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND COPPER RIVER DELTA
WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INCREASES. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF COOK INLET WHILE THE
STRATUS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL LOITER AROUND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR...BUT IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE
PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE COLD
AIR AND BRING MORE MILD TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 09