Small Craft Advisory 1018, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 AM AKST MON NOV 22 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRIMARY
SURFACE FEATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE ECMWF IS RUNNING SEVERAL MB
DEEPER ON EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW BUT POSITION FOR THE NAM AND GFS LOOKS
GOOD. SOME VARIANCE AT THE SURFACE IN LOW/TROUGH THAT FORMS OVER THE
NW BERING WED MORNING WITH THE ECMWF INITIALLY SLIGHTLY DEEPER BUT
THEN GFS FOLLOWS.  BOTTOM LINE IS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE BERING MID
WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WARM MOIST AIR IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS
MORNING AS IT MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE GULF RIDGE. RESIDUAL
POCKETS OF COOLER AIR WILL SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL RAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...SOUTH MOIST FLOW IN EXTREME EAST WITH NORTH FLOW OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS. WEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...STARING TO SLOWLY COOL TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TODAY.  MAIN
MOISTURE BAND MOVES THROUGH COOK INLET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES. THIS
ALSO LOOKS WARM SO COULD SEE RAIN MIXED IN WITH SNOW FURTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BERING...ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRI WITH A LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN BERING
FRI AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST...CHANCE OF SNOW ON WED AS COOLER AIR RETURNS THIS THEN
GIVES WAY TO DRY NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

SOUTHCENTRAL...TROUGH DROPS INTO NW GULF WED SO CONTINUED UNSETTLED.
PERIODS OF PRECIP WED AND THU POTENTIAL SNOW WED NIGHT AND THU AS
COOLER TEMPS RETURN.  COULD SEE A COLD ADVECTION SNOW EVENT IN COOK
INLET ON THU BUT DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FRZ RAIN ADV. 101 111 121 125 145
MARINE...GALES 170 150 155 160
FIRE WEATHER...NOPE

JMP NOV 10