Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

138 
WWAK61 PAFC 250526
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
926 PM AKDT MON MAY 24 2010

AKZ141-250630-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100525T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
926 PM AKDT MON MAY 24 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR TODAY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT MON MAY 24 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA
REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST CANADA INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA...ALLOWING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE SEASONS WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL BE THE KEY
PLAYER IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY IS
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE BERING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC...CREATING WIDESPREAD FOG AND
MARINE STRATUS AS NOTED ON SATELLITE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH A POSSIBLY PATTERN CHANGE THAT MAY BRING MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER TO THE BERING SEA REGION. IN THE SHORT TERM...CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE GENERALLY MINIMAL THIS MORNING. THE LONGER TERM
FORECAST WILL ALSO REMAIN LARGELY UNTOUCHED...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE PEAK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY SPREADS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND PARTS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SO FAR THIS SEASON.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH AGAIN STARTING
WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY REDUCING THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUDS AND BANDS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM INTERIOR
ALASKA...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW EASILY BRINGS
MARINE-INFLUENCED AIR ONSHORE.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WEAK OVERALL FLOW WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. A LOW THEN APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUT WEST...THE LARGE LOW
THAT ESTABLISHES POSITION IN THE CENTRAL BERING BY MIDWEEK APPEARS TO
BECOME QUITE ENTRENCHED...THUS LOOK FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
IN THE BERING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD MAY 10