Hurricane Force Wind Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

665 
FZAK52 PAFC 171227
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 953 MB LOW 300 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 40 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA 
AND WEAKENS TO 967 MB WED NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 986 MB THU
NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK. A STORM FORCE FRONT
WITH THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN BY WED AFTERNOON AND STALLS THROUGH THU NIGHT. A 988 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 70 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-180300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2
FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-180300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. 20 FT. RAIN 
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-180300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SCALE INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. MODEL
MSLP FORECAST SOLUTIONS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 36-48
HRS. SOLUTIONS TEND TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON POSITIONING OF
LOW CENTERS SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND NE PACIFIC...ALL ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE GULF LATE
WED THROUGH THU. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY...AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL
BE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND OFFICIAL GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 60 HRS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE BEYOND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTH GULF MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
TONIGHT. THE WEST COAST/SOUTHEAST ALASKA RIDGE THEN BUILDS NORTH
THROUGH THU. THIS COMBINED WITH BROAD TROUGH WEST OF 145W OVER THE NE
PACIFIC SETS UP DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF IS PERTURBED SOME THU AS
A SHORT WAVE PUSHES NORTH WEST OF 145W.

STRONG LOW WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED MORNING. THE CENTER THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
JUST EAST OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ELONGATES EAST WITH POSSIBLE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THU AFTERNOON.

...SURFACE...
.SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF OF ALASKA...
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY EARLY WED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE.
GALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN WED AS NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH. GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL (TURNAGAIN ARM) AND WINDS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A REVERSAL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE GULF
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TO OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST INCLUDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR CORDOVA AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
PONDING DUE TO DRAINAGE ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...RISING FREEZING LEVELS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD INCREASE AVALANCHE RISK IN THE
EASTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS.

.SOUTHWEST...
WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTWEST ALASKA THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND SCATTERED
SNOW OVER THE DELTA (LITTLE ACCUMULATION). WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN
ORGAINZED WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
THU NIGHT AND FRI.

ALEUTIANS...STORM FORCE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST OF SHEMYA THU.
WARNING LEVEL WINDS AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. WINDS
OVER THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH SOME EARLY WED MORNING. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL TROUGH ELONGATES SE AS TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THU. SOME BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 191
MARINE...STORM 175 176. GALE 120 125 130 140 170 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING 195.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
11 AM AKST TUE FEB 16 2010

AKZ125-131-135-180100-

A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TO OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST INCLUDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR CORDOVA AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
PONDING DUE TO DRAINAGE ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...RISING FREEZING LEVELS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWS IN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD INCREASE AVALANCHE RISK IN THE
EASTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS.

THE WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS
CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

RMC FEB 10