Gale Warning 987, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 PM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...A STACKED LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS
INLAND...STRONG GAP FLOWS WERE PRESENT TODAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. IN ADDITION...A GOOD BORA WIND EVENT IN VALDEZ. NOT VERY
STRONG FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WIND EVENT IN VALDEZ BUT ALL IT NEEDED
WAS A PUSH. A RIDGE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING AS A LOW MOVES
OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. GOOD JET ROUNDING THE RIDGE OVER THE
BERING AND ENCIRCLING THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF.  FURTHER WEST...A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA PUSHING ACROSS THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY. GOOD WESTERLY JET IS HELPING THIS FRONT ALONG. A
STRONGER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE BERING WEDNESDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS DID A GOOD JOB ANALYZING THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF
EXCEPT THE GFS. SO FAVORED AN EC/NAM SOLUTION FROM THE GET GO
TODAY. THIS MEANS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY
THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES ISLANDS. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND CONTINUE THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL BE LESS AS THE LOW WEAKENS THEN
DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL CROSS
THE GULF THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MAINLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE MAINLAND WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER LOW TO WRAP INTO THE UPPER LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA THURSDAY.
THIS LOW DEEPENS TO THE 970S AND CROSSES THE BERING THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE MAINLAND FRIDAY. THE LOW
WILL CROSS INTO THE GULF SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME A LARGE STACKED
LOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREA EAST AS THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE DEPARTS AND
THE THE LOW IN THE GULF OF AK MOVES AWAY...RELAXING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DRY AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITH SOME CLOUDS APPROACHING ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ON HIGHER PEAKS AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
A GREATER CHANCE OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE WITH A STRONGER
FRONT ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
STRATUS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF RESPITE OF PRECIP WILL BE PRESENT
THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A MID
970S MB LOW ADVANCES TO SHEMYA ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING WIDESPREAD GALE TO POSSIBLY STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE BERING
AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ALONG WITH A LARGER MORE SUSTAINED SLUG OF
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...131 135
MARINE...STORM 175 176 411
         GALE...130 132 150 155 165 172 412 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN NOV 10