Gale Warning 984, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST MON NOV 29 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GULF LOW THROUGH 24
HOURS THEN DIVERGE ON POSITION AND STRENGTH...NAM RUNS ABOUT 5 MB
DEEPER THAN GFS AND ECMWF AND MAINTAINS LOW CENTER IN EASTERN GULF
TUE WHILE GFS WANTS TO MOVE IT ONSHORE. IN ANY CASE CONTINUED N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MAINLAND EAST OF 155W. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
GRADIENT OVER NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST SEEMS REASONABLE.

BERING LOW HANDLED REASONABLY WELL AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTON SOUND
TUE NIGHT. A SECOND LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON WED IS
A LITTLE DEEPER IN NAM BUT POSITIONING IS PRETTY CONSISTENT FROM
MODEL TO MODEL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS NORTH WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. AS NOTED ABOVE EXPECTING A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN
GRADIENT TONIGHT...HOWEVER MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EAST OF 148W THROUGH TUE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...SEVERAL WEEK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT WITH SOUTH TO WEST WINDS WEST OF
170W. NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVES INTO WESTERN AL WED NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND TUE
MORNING BUT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL MOVE ANY FURTHER EAST THAN 160W.
STRATUS IN Y-K DELTA REGION BUT CLEAR TO THE EAST.

SOUTHCENTRAL...CLEAR WITH BLOWING SNOW THROUGH MON NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
DIMINISHING MON NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST...STILL EXPECTING NORTH WINDS
IN VALDEZ AND COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. COOL AND CLEAR
TUE AND WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW BUT MODEST MID-TROP TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHWEST
WED NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSES THE AL-AK
RANGE THU MORNING...HENCE LITTLE IMPACT COOK INLET EAST. SECOND FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST COAST THU NIGHT AND MAY MAKE IT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE FRI MORNING. LOOKS AS IF THESE FRONTS WILL PRODUCE
SNOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST BUT COULD SEE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP
ALONG COAST DURING LANDFALL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HWW 131 135
MARINE...STRMS 130 150 GALE 120 121 125 129 132 180 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NEGATIVE

JMP NOV 10