Gale Warning 981, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SUN NOV 28 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND HAD PRODUCED AREAS OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST AND KODIAK
ISLAND. MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BEING CHANNELED THROUGH THE
GAPS ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH A
WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA HAD HELPED CLEAR THE SKIES
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT IT IS ALSO MOVING MORE COLD, DRY AIR INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THESE AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
IS PREFERRED OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BECAUSE IT HANDLES
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST BEST. THE GSF OR
THE NAM MODELS SHOULD WORK ELSEWHERRE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY WHICH WILL
DRIFT TOWARD THE ANNETTE ISLANDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN NEAR
STATIONARY AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SOUND WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. THE SNOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL PERSIST A
LITTLE LONG INTO THE LATER EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MAINLY WEST OF THE
TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL BY MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
NORTH AND WEST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COLD DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WIND ALONG THE ALASKA AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE ONTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST TUESDAY,
BRING AREAS OF SNOW WITH IT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A MODERATE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BERING WITH THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE MODELS OVER THE BERING ARE IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NEAR WHITTIER, THOMPSON PASS AND THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA.
MARINE...STORM...130 132
         GALE...120 121 125 129 138 140 150 155 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 10