Gale Warning 944, NWS Anchorage, AK

286 
FZAK51 PAFC 141240
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1013 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND 50 NM EAST OF SEWARD SUNDAY MORNING
AND MOVE TO 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH ON TUE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
MON AND TUE.
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS 3 FT.

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 40 KT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

551 
FZAK51 PAFC 150025
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1014 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 50 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS
EVENING AND MOVE TO 160 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1010 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF MON AND TUE. 
$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 13 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF
KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH A STRONG JET FLOWING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVED INLAND OVERNIGHT
BRINGING MANY AREAS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL RAIN AND SNOW. A FEW WEAKER
SHORT WAVES CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL LOCKED UP NORTH OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. THIS AIR WILL START TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ALL MODELS
INDICATING LARGE BUT GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SO WILL BE STICKING WITH THE GFS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAINLAND ALASKA...MUCH MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST TODAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MAINLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UP
THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST FROM THE COPPER RIVER DELTA TO THE EASTERN KENAI. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUNDAY...A WEAK LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AS A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND WILL BE REINFORCED WHEN THE
COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN THE WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS TO
GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. STORM
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS.

LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. DRIER AND COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY FILTER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN PLACES LIKE
BETHEL BEFORE REBOUNDING LATER IN THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY AND
SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL LIKELY BECOMING MARGINAL TO IFR AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 10