Gale Warning 933, NWS Anchorage, AK

223 
FZAK52 PAFC 100118
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 MB LOW 20 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO 180 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WED AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. 
A 997 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A 956
MB LOCATED 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO N 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SHUMAGIN ISLAND E...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. NE WIND 35 KT. WEST OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NE WIND 15
KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 8 FT WEST
OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. WEST OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...N WIND 25
KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 PM AKST MON NOV 8 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE POLAR VORTEX TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TO THE POLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER SIBERIA
THROUGH THE WEEK...THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL DEEPEN AND START
TO RETROGRADE LATER THIS WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN OVER SIBERIA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT 500MB WITH
THE POLAR LOW MOVING INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN NEAR 180. THEREFORE...THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE MOVING
INTO THE GULF THURSDAY. THE EC IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS. THE GFS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION DUE TO THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME THE UNCERTAINTY COMES
INTO PLAY QUITE HEAVILY. MODELS SETTLE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FRIDAY
BUT THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SURFACE FEATURE ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE GULF IS OF QUESTION. GFS IS FARTHER EAST
AND NOT AS STRONG AS THE EC. GFS ENSEMBLES HINT AT THE FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION AS WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD. TRANSIENT RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS HANGING TOUGH OVER
MOST OF THE MAINLAND. THE JET STREAM IS LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD TO CARVE OUT THE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD
THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS IS HELPING TO BREAK UP THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT HAS FEATURED A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER UPPER
COOK INLET FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS A MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE
THAT HAS ALSO REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS ALSO THE SAME
FEATURE THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOW INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS SLOWLY BREAKING UP INTO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS SEEING SOME SUNNY
BREAKS TODAY...WHILE A WEAK FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING HAS USHERED
IN ENOUGH WARM AIR TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS HAPPENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GULF...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY THAT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST. EXPECT MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION TO SHIFT TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND OVERNIGHT AS MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL STEADILY IN VALDEZ...CHANGING PRECIPITATION
TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE FAIRLY UNIFORM
8 TO 14 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN TOWN AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COOK
INLET AND ANCHORAGE BOWL OVERNIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY BECOME STEADIER IN ANCHORAGE
TOMORROW MORNING AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH COOK
INLET...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LARGE BUT RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE BERING WILL BRING NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL STAY RELATIVELY
DRY...AS WEAK FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TIMING
OF THE SYSTEMS IN VERY MUCH IN DOUBT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND WRAPPING
INTO THE GULF AND BACK INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THIS IS A RESULT OF
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SETTING UP AN ESTABLISHED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY AND RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...STORMS PASS THROUGH THE GULF TWICE IN THE LONG TERM AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAVING SHOWERS JUST WRAP AROUND THESE LOWS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO PREVAIL OVER THE BERING THROUGHOUT DUE TO THE
COLD AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
EXPECTED OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN/AMD NOV 10