Gale Warning 862, NWS Anchorage, AK

820 
FZAK52 PAFC 271639 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
835 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

UPDATED ZONE 150 170 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280000-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 950 MB LOW 480 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 959 MB LATE WED EVENING...THEN TRACK TO
AROUND 100 NM NORTHWEST OF HOOPER BAY AT 971 MB FRI MORNING. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ASHORE THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST WED
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-280000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
835 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
835 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT...INCREASING TO 40 KT BERING SIDE 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT
PACIFIC SIDE.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280000-
UNALASKA BAY
835 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT BERING SIDE...SUBSIDING TO 15 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT BERING SIDE...W 30 KT PACIFIC SIDE. 
SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SEAS 18 FT. 
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SEAS 28 FT BUILDING TO 36 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...
34 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1250 PM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED NEAR
KING SALMON THIS MORNING IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS LOW IS RIGHT NEAR THE
LOW CENTER FALLING MAINLY AS SNOW. OF NOTE HOWEVER IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE SOURCE
OF VERTICAL MOTION IS A VORT-MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ROTATION AROUND
THE BRISTOL BAY LOW. THE NAM IS VERIFYING THE BEST WITH THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR TONIGHT
IN TRACKING THESE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF FOG QUICKLY FORMED. WEB CAMS SHOW THAT THIS FOG IS QUITE
SHALLOW SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL. OUT WEST A HURRICANE
FORCE LOW BOMBED AS IT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN BERING THANKS TO A
160KT+ UPPER JET. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS LOW IS AROUND
950 MB. THE STRONG JET IS HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MAJOR FEATURES. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD A STRONGER BERING LOW AND STRONGER FRONT AS
WELL AS FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT FORMS NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAKES SINCE CONSIDERING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SHOWERS MOVING UP THE KENAI PENINSULA
ARE FALLING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE AIR MASS FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD ANCHORAGE IS SLIGHTLY COOLER SO EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS THESE PROGRESS NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO WOULD EXPECT LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION AS THESE MOVE THROUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
AT OR NEAR SEA LEVEL. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW
FREEZING. MEANWHILE...THE LOW OVER KING SALMON WILL MOVE ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE BULK
OF ENERGY WITH THIS LOW DROPS DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG FRONT CURRENTLY MARCHING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA ARRIVES. STRONG SOUTHEAST CHINOOK WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMICS WILL COUNTERACT
SOME OF THESE AFFECTS AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK TO THE VICINITY
OF THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CUT OFF WARM
ADVECTION TO INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE BEST SHOT FOR SNOW
LOOKS TO BE THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY...THOUGH EVEN HERE
TEMPERATURES LOOK BORDERLINE FOR SNOW. IF IT IS IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL HAVE TO
BE CONSIDERED BECAUSE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. FOR NOW WILL
INTRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE KING SALMON LOW MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND.
THE BERING FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN FROM BRISTOL BAY TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WON'T SEE AS
MUCH WARM AIR...SO PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SO DON'T EXPECT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY SO SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE BERING WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL BE
SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT SITS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING MID TO LATE
WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO OVER 30 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING
BY MID WEEK AND THEN VERY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEK.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SO THAT SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE
BETTER CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LEAD TO
ACTIVE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE ALASKAN
REGION. WHILE THE NORTHERN LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MODELS INDICATE
A SHORT-WAVE EXITING ASIA AND LEADING TO LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS NEXT WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL ALLOW
ARCTIC AIR TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALASKA...WHICH COULD SET
UP POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW DEPENDING HOW THESE SOUTHERN
STORMS INTERACT WITH ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...176 180 185.
         GALE WARNING...130 138 150 160 170 172 175 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 10