Gale Warning 73, NWS Anchorage, AK

370 
FZAK52 PAFC 231221
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 370 NM SOUTH OF ADAK
AT 987 MB BY LATE TONIGHT THEN TO 600 NM SOUTH OF ADAK LATE SUN
NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT SUN MORNING WILL MOVE
TO 160 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY LATE SUN NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE
MORNING DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA...INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND PARALLELS THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESIDES WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE 190 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET DIVES SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WITH A 150 KT 300 MB JET STREAK RIDING
ALONG ITS EAST SIDE.

AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CO-LOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO CENTRAL ALASKA IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A STRONG SURFACE FRONT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT IS STILL BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS
TO THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

REALLY NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE MODEL DEPARTMENT THIS MORNING
WITH NO REAL INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS AND ALL OF THE MODELS IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE GULF LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WRAP
AROUND A NEW LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THUS MAINTAINS THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INSTEAD OF OPENING IT UP INTO
A SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS DISCREPANCY HAS
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS REMAINING HIGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTH TODAY. STRONG "GAP
FLOW" WINDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND THEN
ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EVEN FURTHER AWAY AND
THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE STRONG FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BUT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT WESTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT.

EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF 60 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
SETS UP OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA NEXT WEEK AS WEAK SYSTEMS IN EASTERLY FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 130 132 150 155 172 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 150 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG/KS JAN 10