Gale Warning 697, NWS Anchorage, AK

996 
FZAK52 PAFC 281901 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

UPDATED AREA 175

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290000-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW CENTERED 70 NM SOUTH OF SAINT GEORGE ISLAND MOVES TO 100
NM EAST OF SAND POINT AT 985 MB BY WED MORNING AND THEN TRACKS INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
ON WED EVENING.
$$

PKZ150-290000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-290000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING N 25 KT FROM COLD BAY W 
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT...EXCEPT SW 25 KT IN THE MORNING
FROM SAND POINT E. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES W OF SAND POINT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-290000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT N 25 KT FROM 160W E. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-290000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 20 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-290000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ170-290000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN. BERING
SIDE...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT DEVELOPING BY
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR PASSES. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT 
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT...MAINLY NEAR PASSES. 
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-290000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-290000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 32 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-290000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
1100 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...25
FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 18
FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

PKZ176-290000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-290000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
$$

PKZ179-290000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 27 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
THREE DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEEKEND
PERIOD WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION.
AT THIS TIME THE SHORT TERM HAS A MIX OF NAM AND GFS WHILE THERE IS A
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS AREA OF THE HEMISPHERE IS BEING
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE ARCTIC
COAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EXTEND OUT OF THIS LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD
JUST EAST OF THE AL-CAN BORDER AND WELL AS INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. THE JET STREAM AT 250 MB MOVES OFF JAPAN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT LOWS WITH A HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE VERY MIDDLE ON THE STATE.
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF IS WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AND IS
NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR IN SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE STRONG
STORM IN THE BERING SEA IS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MALAKAS. THIS
POTENT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR FALSE PASS AND
THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH WINDS
TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THE ADAK AREA GUSTING OVER 75 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE BERING SEA REGION AND
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL STAY RAIN WITH AS THIS IS AN OLD TROPICAL
SYSTEM.

THE PATTERN OF A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE HIGH IS CONDUCIVE
FOR CLEAR BUT CHILLY WEATHER...WHICH IS WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER A
LARGE PART OF MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW
FALLING...BUT THIS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE BERING SEA
SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS ARE A BIT UNDECIDED AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES BUT THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH DOES KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA IN CYCLONIC FLOW SO THE LONG STRETCH OF SUNNY AND CLEAR
WEATHER IN SOUTHERN ALASKA APPEARS TO BE COMING TO A RAPID END.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
MARINE...STORM 170 172 175 176.
         GALE 130 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 10