Gale Warning 683, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT FRI SEP 24 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA IS CHANNELING A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA. A STRONG SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF
HAS MOVED CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS LOW HAS ALSO INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND HAS PRODUCED STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND DOWN THE
COOK INLET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY THEN WILL MERGE WITH A STRONG MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF
THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE GULF SATURDAY THEN
DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL MOVE
INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA AND EXTEND A TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND SUNDAY. THIS SHIFTING PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST ALASKA
UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AT THE SURFACE
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SLIDE
WEST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THEN
DISSIPATE LATE SATURDAY. AREAS OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SPREAD TO KODIAK
ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING THEN BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS BLOWING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN EASE UP A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVER THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A NEW STORM DEVELOPING NEAR JAPAN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE WESTERN
BERING SUNDAY AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A NEW STORM SOUTH OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TURN NORTH INTO
EASTERN GULF MONDAY THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE OTHER STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THEE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132
         GALE 125 138 140 165 170 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 10