Gale Warning 67, NWS Anchorage, AK

434 
FZAK51 PAFC 200023
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 976 MB LOW 235 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND WED. A 970 MB LOW 85 NM WEST OF 
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WED MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300 NM EAST OF
KODIAK THU AFTERNOON AT 979 MB.

$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. E WIND 20 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BARREN
ISLANDS AND WEST. FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE.  
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.  FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THRU FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THRU FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND EC IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAIN
FEATURES.  NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THURSDAYS GULF LOW AS IT
WANTS TO PUSH IT TOO FAR NORTH.  NO MAJOR FEATURES IN BERING UNTIL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN POLAR JET REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE
PACIFIC AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AOR.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER NORTHERN JAPAN ON THU HELPS DEVELOP DEEP TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN BERING ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF WITH A NEW LOW FORMING WED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THEN MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER CANADA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CONTINUED STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTH
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BERING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY IN THE WEST AS A RESULT OF WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  EXPECTING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE AK RANGE TO
INTENSIFYING TODAY PRODUCING SOME MODEST NORTH WINDS IN CHANNELED
AREAS AND LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON

THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN IS PROGED TO EXTEND NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT DOWN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO WESTERN ALASKA ON SAT. NEW GULF LOW ON THU AND
FRI STALLS IN CENTRAL GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER STATE.  EXPECT
COOLER AIR TEMPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL STARTING THUR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SEE PACKAGE
MARINE...SEE PACKAGE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JAN 10