Gale Warning 663, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM AS WELL AS OLDER ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES.  GFS RUNNING 3 TO 5 MB DEEPER
ON BERING SYSTEMS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE
OVER MAINLAND AND GULF WILL PERSIST.  WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS OVER
NORTHERN GULF SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THEIR BERING
SEA.  A WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS ABSORBED INTO
A DEEPER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  A STRONG FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAIN LOW JUST WEST OF ATTU THIS AFTERNOON
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AS IT
WEAKENS.  DUE TO PERSIST RIDGE OVER THE GULF THIS SYSTEM IS PROGED TO
NEVER MOVE EAST OF 170W.  PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
ON FRIDAY...A SIMILAR TRACK AS TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT WITH
CONSIDERABLE WEST WINDS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF MOVING
TOWARD THE CHUKCHI SEA LATER IN THE WEEK ALLOWING WEAK SYSTEMS TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 176    GALES 175 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP SEP 10