Gale Warning 656, NWS Anchorage, AK

884 
FZAK52 PAFC 151206 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
405 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

CORRECT ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160000-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA ISLAND MOVES TO 240 NM SOUTH OF
ATKA AND WEAKENS TO 989 MB BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-160000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-160000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-160000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-160000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-160000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-160000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-160000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-160000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-160000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT.  BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-160000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-160000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-160000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
225 PM AKDT TUES SEP 14 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN OMEGA RIDGE BLOCK OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO
MAJORITY OF MAINLAND ALASKA. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT STRATUS ALONG THE
WEST GULF OF ALASKA SURGED NORTHWARD ALONG THE INLET INTO ANCHORAGE.
WITH THE WEAKER SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE WORKING TO BREAK OFF THE FOG. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO LINGERING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
UNDER SOUTH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OFFSHORE...A FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED IN DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT TODAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THE
NEXT MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO APPROACH THE WEST FORECAST AREA WILL
BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE WEST ALEUTIANS BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND REMAIN
CONNECTED TO ITS UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY SUPPORT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS LOW
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AIR. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE
MANIFESTATION OF THIS LOW AS IT WEAKENS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...EXPECT WARM SUNNY WEATHER AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. WITH LITTLE
MIXING EXPECTED...STRATUS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST
AND COOK INLET INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE
FOG AND STRATUS BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REFORM TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL COOLING.

.SOUTHWEST...STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT
SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF BREAKS IN THE FOG...IT WILL QUICKLY
REFORM AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STEADY OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA WHICH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG AND STRATUS COVER. INLAND AREAS EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST WITH PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS...A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A NEW SYSTEM DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST OF THE WEST ALEUTIANS IS MOVING NORTHEAST. WINDS NEAR STORM
FORCE AND RAIN WILL REACH THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY
WHILE GALES WILL REACH THE EAST ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
INTO THE WEEKEND.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT A RETURN TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN SEP 10