Gale Warning 643, NWS Anchorage, AK

893 
FZAK52 PAFC 080029 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

CORRECTION FOR ZONE 165

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081200-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 MB LOW 70 NM WEST OF CAPE ROMANZOF WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOME WED MORNING AND THEN REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES THROUGH WED NIGHT. A STRONG FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS LATE TUE NIGHT THEN
TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS ON THU. 
$$

PKZ150-081200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-081200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-081200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-081200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-081200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-081200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-081200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-081200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-081200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT TOWARD THE MORNING. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-081200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-081200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1250 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WHICH
BROUGHT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT IS NOW RAPIDLY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO CROSSED MOST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA SO THIS LOW AND ITS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE STILL
BACK OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LARGE PARENT LOW IS NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. WIDESPREAD GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERING LOW AND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO MAKING IT
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PARTLY DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT. LOOKING TO THE WEST A RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BERING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS LIE PRIMARILY
IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED
TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD TO AROUND NORTON SOUND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF BY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. AS IT MAKES THIS TRANSITION SHORT-WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SOME FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVES TRACK
THROUGH...ENHANCED BY ONSHORE FLOW. SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE MORE
OF A SHOWERY REGIME WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOME NORTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. THE WEAK RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL FLATTEN
OUT AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO PRESENCE
OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AND APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE WEST.
STILL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WHICH MAY SEE SOME RAIN ON
FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING BERING FRONT ARRIVES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TO UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AND INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. THE FRONT WILL MARCH SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE FRONT ELONGATES. THERE
LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH WIND OR RAIN LEFT WITH THE FRONT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE COMPLETELY GONE BY SATURDAY WITH
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MEANS
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
STORM TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE BERING WITH THE FRONT
PUSHING EASTWARD TO THE MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...160 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 10