Gale Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING OVERALL FINE BUT ARE HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WELL SINCE
THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GRASP ON IT BUT NOT AN OVERLY FIRM ONE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BENDS BACK OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE AND SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AS IT
DEPARTS ASIA OVER JAPAN AND HEADS DUE EAST. THAT WILL KEEP IT WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OVER THE YUKON HAS PUSHED OVER INTERIOR ALASKA
AS A LOW COMPLEX RESIDES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEATHER
FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND OUT OF THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THAT. THERE IS
A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS WAVE AS A VERY STRONG INVERSION
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE BELOW FREEZING IN NUMEROUS
PLACES WHILE TEMPERATURES FROM 1000 TO 3500 FT ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. THIS IS A VERY GOOD PATTERN FR FREEZING RAIN...THE
PRECIPITATION IS JUST LIMITED AT THIS TIME. WHILE RADAR DOES SHOW
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...A LOT OF IT IS VIRGA...EVAPORATING BEFORE
IT REACHES THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHEN COMPARING TODAY TO THE FORECAST FIVE DAYS OUT. THIS
WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 10