Gale Warning 565, NWS Anchorage, AK

771 
FZAK51 PAFC 162318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171200-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-171200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NORTHEAST OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-171200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-171200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF KACHEMAK BAY...N WIND 10 WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
150 PM AKDT THU SEP 16 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALASKA MAINLAND WEATHER. AS A
RESULT SUNNY SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND KODIAK ISLAND.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THIS RIDGE ARE ALLOWING STRATUS TO
PERSIST WITHIN COOK INLET AND PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
STRATUS IS ALSO LINGERING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BERING COAST AND
VALLEYS OF THE MAINLAND SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE
SOUTH OF ADAK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT BROUGHT PEAK
WINDS OF CLOSE TO 40 KT TO DUTCH HARBOR AND LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE BERING LOW AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE INLET
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN LIGHT AND DO NOT ALLOW
MIXING BETWEEN THE SHALLOW MOIST MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE DRY
INVERSION ABOVE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
INLET. THE INVERSION ALOFT WILL ALSO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING.

.SOUTHWEST...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WITH MORE FOG ALONG THE BERING COAST. HOWEVER...FOG IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS DENSE TONIGHT DUE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL TRY TO
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA BUT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND STALL AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEEKEND. SO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.ALEUTIANS...A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BUT
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO
SATURDAY. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONGTERM...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION RAIN FREE. MODELS
ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO RETURN TO MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 171 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN SEP 10