Gale Warning 564, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOWS ARE NEAR
THE BERING STRAIT AND JUST WEST OF UNALASKA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THE ALCAN EXTENDING FROM THE
BEAUFORT SEA COAST TO NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOWS ARE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BERING...WITH RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE MOUTH OF THE KUSKOKWIM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMES A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MOST OF MAINLAND AK ON TUE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
BERING THROUGH MON NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR MOVES
TO THE ALCAN AND THE YUKON BY WED. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A KAMCHATKA
LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND STALLS AS IT REACHES
THE EASTERN BERING ON THU. THE FORECAST LEANS ON THE GFS AND EC WITH
HPC GUIDANCE INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REACH
BRISTOL BAY LATER TODAY AND THEN TAPER OFF TUE BENEATH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN WILL BEGIN WED AS THE FRONT
FROM THE KAMCHATKA LOW ARRIVES. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THU.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...INTENSIFYING
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SHOWERS TUE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF WED.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND POINTS INLAND THIS EVENING AND TUE. AS
THE ALEUTIAN LOW DECAYS INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MAINLAND...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE BEING LIMITED TO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THU.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE KAMCHATKA LOW AND FRONT BRING RAIN AND WIND TO BRISTOL BAY FRI
BEFORE MOVING INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG. RAIN WILL RESUME OVER
SOUTHWEST AK BY THE END OF WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. SOUTHEAST
OF THE AK RANGE WILL HAVE MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS AUG 10