Gale Warning 552, NWS Anchorage, AK

896 
FZAK52 PAFC 131819 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1020 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

UPDATED ZONES 155 160

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140000-
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 95 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT SAT
MORNING AT 998 MB. THIS LOW STRENGTHENS TO 987 MB AS IT MOVES OVER
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND SUN MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS ON SAT. 

$$

PKZ150-140000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
1020 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...SEAS 9 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...
SE WIND 35 KT...SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 35 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
1020 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-140000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-140000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-140000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-140000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 15 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-140000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKDT THU AUG 12 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVELS
CONTINUES AS BERING SEA TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGE. RIGHT NOW THE JET IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THIS
AREA...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN FEATURES OF CONCERN ARE RIGHT IN THIS CORRIDOR.
A SHORT-WAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY IS TRACKING QUICKLY INLAND WITH RAIN
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WESTERN
PORTION OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE FRONT EDGE OF RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE MIDDLETON ISLAND
RADAR. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR ADAK IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. A 150 KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
LOW IS THE CAUSE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETS UP BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE
TRENDED EASTWARD...BUT THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN ANY OF
THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
HAS A COUPLE NICE DAYS OR WHETHER THE CLOUDY COOL AND WET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE THE GFS SOLUTION AND STICK CLOSE
TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FORECAST...WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO SOLUTION
OF OTHER MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL
OVER INTO OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER IT WILL
BECOME AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO PREVENT RAIN FROM NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
FROM MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RECOGNIZING THAT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CHANGE. IN ANY CASE...WHETHER THERE IS MUCH OF
A BREAK OR NOT ON FRIDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK
IN RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...IT THEN
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRE HOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT
AT SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FIRE HOSE AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT THE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ALL INDICATE VERY WET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS EVERYTHING MOVES EASTWARD.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN QUIET THE NEXT
FEW DAYS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AS STORMS TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. A LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME QUITE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THIS WEEKEND WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
SYSTEM ALONG THE ALEUTIANS RAPIDLY MOVES IN TO TAKE ITS PLACE.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP. MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THIS TIME RANGE HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD AS
OF LATE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SUPPORT PROGRESSION OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA EARLY TO MID WEEK AND THEN OVER MAINLAND
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE FOR A LONGER DURATION OF
NICE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 10