Gale Warning 520, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
205 PM AKDT SUN AUG 8 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD REGION OF LOW PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES THE BERING AND EXTENDS INTO WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND IS SUPPORTING A 140 KT JET AT 300MB ABOVE THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. A WIDE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AT THE SURFACE...A POTENT 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS THE BERING TO THE EAST AND THEN CURVES ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING AND
LIGHTNING NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE
SHORT TERM SO A BLEND WAS USED. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING
OF A BERING LOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY SO BLENDED TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AND GULF THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
STEADY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AFTER THE FRONT.
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A BERING LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE BERING LOW
MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.

.BERING SEA...EXPECT RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS
GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE BERING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND RESULTING IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A RIDGE BUILDING A WEEK FROM
NOW BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 170 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN AUG 10