Gale Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

432 
FZAK62 PAFC 051246
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING ON TUESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ411-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 TO 24 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
306 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ALASKA MAINLAND WITH A RIDGE AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE BERING SEA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AN ASSOCIATED BARBELL LOW TO THE SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...A 967 MB STACKED LOW IS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING INTO KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE ATKA LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BERING AND INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT OF THE
SLOW NORTHEASTERN PROGRESSION OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY EVENING.  MODELS ARE IN BROAD
AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE BY THURSDAY AND THE GFS WAS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION
FOR THE LONG TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SUSITNA
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS BROAD SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS

.SOUTHWEST/BRISTOL BAY...A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND LOWER VALLEY IS BRINGING SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MUCH
OF THE REGION TODAY. WHILE A DEEP REGION OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ABOVE THE SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TODAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST BERING AND A LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
SUPPORT STRONG WINDS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ALSO EXISTS BETWEEN THE
MAINLAND HIGH AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BY
TOMORROW AS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH AND MOVE
WEST. SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THIS LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG TERM FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS ALWAYS BUT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN STORMY.  A NEW LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY BRINGING MORE WINDS AND MOST LIKELY
RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
IN THE EAST...MORE DOWNSLOPING CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN RAIN ALONG THE GULF
COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 175
176 180 185.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN/EZ JAN 10