Gale Warning 488, NWS Anchorage, AK

693 
FZAK62 PAFC 080004 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED JUL 7 2010

...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081200-
400 PM AKDT WED JUL 7 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 MB LOW NEAR 46N 174W WILL INTENSIFY TO 969 MB NEAR 49N 174W THU
AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 981 MB NEAR 51N 170W FRI
AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ411-081200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED JUL 7 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED JUL 7 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-081200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED JUL 7 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-081200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED JUL 7 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA  AND WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
NORTHWEST OF ADAK...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW
OVER CHIGNIK STRETCHES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.  TO THE EAST...A WIDE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST.

.AT THE SURFACE...A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE STILL STRETCHES FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS YAKUTAT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS INDICATING THAT A SURFACE LOW IS
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THIS BAROCLINICITY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY. MEANWHILE TO THE
EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE IS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE FINALLY IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TOWARDS
THE BARREN ISLAND ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTENSITY OF THIS LOW. THE ECMWF IS THE CLEAR OUTLIER SO A BLEND OF
THE REST OF THE MODELS WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONG
TERM...THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE DIVERGENT THAN THEY WERE EARLIER
IN THE WEEK SO THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY. THE GFS HAS THE MOST
CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BARREN ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL BE
DOWNSLOPED...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND SEWARD COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY.

.SOUTHWEST...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
BUT MORE STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIANS TODAY AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW
WILL APPROACH THE ALEUTIAN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
STEADY RAIN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL KEEP
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...CREATING MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE MAY BUILD AFTER 10
DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172 175
         GALE WARNING 120 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN JUL 10