Gale Warning 484, NWS Anchorage, AK

395 
FZAK52 PAFC 281523
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RETRANSMIT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290200-
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 996 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 325 NM WEST OF
SAINT PAUL BY LATE TUE NIGHT AT 1001 MB.
$$

PKZ150-290200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-290200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-290200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-290200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-290200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-290200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-290200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-290200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-290200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-290200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS...
THREE DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL LOWS CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA...AND WEST OF SHEMYA DOMINATE THE ALASKAN
WEATHER SCENE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF AND BEAUFORT SEA LOWS ARE
SLOWLY DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND WHILE THE WESTERN LOW IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA. A COL
CENTERED NEAR FAIRBANKS EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO EASTERN LOWS AND TWO
RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING WESTWARD OUT OF THE YUKON TERRITORY
AND EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE BERING IS
ELONGATING AND DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW TO ITS
SOUTHWEST...HELPING TO TEMPORARILY STALL THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION IN CENTRAL
CANADA...WHICH WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
FILLING 1003MB AND 1009MB SURFACE LOWS ARE STACKED UNDER THEIR UPPER
LEVEL COUNTERPARTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND BEAUFORT
SEA...RESPECTIVELY. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BAND STRETCHES NORTH FROM THE
GULF LOW AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...HELPING TO BRING CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IS NUDGING THE GULF LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST AS IT SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. A RESULTANT
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE COOK INLET AREA AND
THE MAT-SU VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. A SHARP RIDGE CONTROLS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE
AKPEN WHILE A WEATHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS OUT
AHEAD OF A 995MB LOW 220 MILES WEST OF SHEMYA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY
BUT THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERPLAYED THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FOR
THE ANCHORAGE AREA TODAY. THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE ARE ONLY A FEW MINOR
DISCREPANCIES WORTH MENTIONING...MOSTLY RELATED TO THE WESTERN BERING
LOW AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME AGREEING ON THE CENTER
OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD AS IT MAKES THIS
JUMP ACROSS THE BERING...BUT COME BACK INTO FAIR AGREEMENT ONCE IT
STALLS OVER THE EASTERN BERING ON WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE COOK
INLET REGION AND MAT-SU VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HANG ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE WAVE
RUNNING UP AGAINST THE LOW IN THE GULF. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE REGION DEVOID
OF MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE GULF COAST.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS SINKING
SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE-LADEN
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS PUSHES EASTWARD TO THE AKPEN
BY MONDAY MORNING AND REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SKIRTS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EASTERN BERING LOW STALLS OVER THE PRIBILOFS AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF...BRINGING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN PUNCTUATED BY
PERIODS OF CLEARING. IN GENERAL EXPECT A WET AND COOL WEATHER
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS JUN 10