Gale Warning 439, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1 PM AKDT WED JUN 9 2010

CORRECTION TO MARINE WARNINGS

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MAJOR MODELS INITIALIZED LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
WELL. TENDING TO LEAN TOWARDS GFS SINCE THIS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NAM, ECMWF AND UKMET ALL BRING DEVELOPING
LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO JUST SOUTH OF GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  NAM IS A LITTLE WEAKER ON THE STRENGTH AT THAT TIME BUT
EVENTUALLY GETS CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS CENTRAL PRESSURE LATER ON.
ALL MODELS MOVE THE LOW INTO THE GULF ON SATURDAY.

BOTH UKMET AND ECMWF PUSH THE WESTERN BERING SEA LOW FARTHER EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SO WILL TREND TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION FOR THE BERING
SEA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE BERING SEA RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BRING STEADY
RAINS TO THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. TWO UPPER LOWS FORM OVER GULF OF ALASKA AND WESTERN BERING
SEA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGING TO BE OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND.  THIS RESULTS IN A RAINY AND WINDY
PATTERN OVER GULF COAST AND ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SURFACE TROUGH WILL OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTING THE MAIN AXIS OF THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR.  THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED T-STORM NEAR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GALE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MIGHT SEE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COASTLINE
AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE COAST
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS TO LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
BERING SEA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INUNDATING MAINLAND ALASKA. EXPECT
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 132 AND 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JWP JUN 10