Gale Warning 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 12 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE DOING FINE EXCEPT THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE SWINGING THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE NEAR KODIAK ON FRIDAY TOO
FAR EAST AND CONSEQUENTLY IT IS A BIT TOO SLOW AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE LARGELY THE SAME NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL PATTERN
LOOKS GOOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHEAST BERING SEA AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND
WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. THE JET STREAM IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT IS INTENSIFYING A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THAT WILL MOVE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
IN THE COOK INLET REGION BEFORE THE LOW REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY TOMORROW. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
BERING SEA REGION AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND OVER THE ILIAMNA AREA
FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER LOW POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP THINGS DRIER THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 10