Gale Warning 393, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SURFACE AND UPPER AIR INITIALIZATIONS ARE
REASONABLE AND IN FAIR/GOOD AGREEMENT. FORECAST TREND THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE ALSO SIMILAR AND WITH REASONABLE. AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGES WILL GENERALLY BE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE AK-WRF
USED FOR SHORT TERM MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EAST.

.ANALYSIS
.UPPER LEVELS...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SHORT WAVE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BRINGS COOLER AIR ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SUN. IT IS FOLLOWED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND MON. THE COLD LOW COMPLEX OVER THE
BERING SEA MOVES TO OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND BROADENS. BY MID-WEEK THE
MAIN LOW CENTER IS SW OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...HOWEVER A
TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AK PEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SURFACE...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GALE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL GULF MON. THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO A SUMMER
LIKE PATTERN SUN WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK AND WILL BRING LOCAL GUSTY WINDS AND
SEABREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALSO SHOULD SEE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. SHOWERS WILL BE
THE GENERAL RULE THRU MON AS CONDITIONS WILL TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
UNSTABLE TUE AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH. SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EVEN WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
MON AS COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HOLD DOWN SURFACE TEMPS.

.OUT WEST...A OLD OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. GALE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN AK PEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SUN. EXPECT GALES TO EAST OF CENTER
INITIALLY...THEN TRAILING NW GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. FRONT APPROACHING THE AK PEN WILL NOT LIKELY
SPREAD MUCH PRECIPITATION INTO SW ALASKA. COOLER AND CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS OVER SW ALASKA SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUN AND MON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO EXPECT THE ICE EDGE
TO HANG AROUND AND GENERALLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER OVER THE AK PEN.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
BERING SEA THE EARLY THIS WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 138 150 155 160 170 171 AND 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 10